🇹🇹 CARIBBEAN BUDGET INTELLIGENCE™
Thursday, October 24, 2025 | Issue #003
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📊 THE SCORE: 2.7/10 (↓ from 2.9)
⏱️ 2-MIN READ
🆕 DASHBOARD LIVE
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🆕 YOUR DASHBOARD IS LIVE
Stop scrolling for data. Start tracking reality.
See what government won't show you:
Oil price vs budget assumptions (live)
Forex burn rate (updated weekly)
Promise delivery tracker (2 of 47 so far)
Jamaica/Barbados comparisons
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THE BRUTAL MATH
Norway saved $2.1T from oil.
T&T burned $6.8B in reserves.
Same resource. Different choices.
Norway's playbook (1990-2025):
Save oil money → $2.1T fund
Withdraw 3% annually (preserves forever)
Result: Fund income > oil production
T&T's reality (2014-2025):
Spend oil money → $6.8B reserves vanished
No sovereign fund (30 years of talk)
Result: Crisis when prices drop
Translation: They invested the inheritance. We spent it.
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THE INNOVATION COLLAPSE
Guardian business editor this week:
"Trinidad and Tobago ranked 114th out of 139 economies in the 2025 Global Innovation Index—last among ALL high-income countries."
The evidence is damning:
2008: Rank 68th globally
2025: Rank 114th (worse than Jamaica 79th, Barbados 77th)
What died:
Patents filed: Minimal by T&T residents
R&D spending: <0.05% of GDP
Economic complexity: Declining since 1995
Meanwhile this budget:
47 promises made
2 delivered (fuel, VAT)
$793.7M agriculture grants = still inaccessible
Translation: We talk innovation. We practice dependency.
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YOUR MOVE (Stop Waiting, Start Building)
🏪 IF YOU OWN AN SME
Dr. Keith Nurse (COSTAATT President): "We have the second-lowest rate of total entrepreneurial activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. We need a mindset shift—from rent-seeking to value creation."
What that means in practice:
Form a micro-cluster with 5-10 businesses:
✅ Stop: Waiting for government grants
✅ Start: Pool resources for bulk purchasing (↓20-30% costs)
✅ Stop: Competing for same local clients
✅ Start: Joint marketing to access bigger contracts
✅ Stop: Hoarding individual forex access
✅ Start: Collective forex pooling (navigate shortages together)
✅ Stop: Trying to export alone
✅ Start: Shared export agent → CARICOM markets
Real example: 10 food manufacturers couldn't export individually. Pooled resources → 1 shared agent → now serving Jamaica + Barbados markets worth $2M annually.
Resource: IADB Caribbean Cluster Guide (proven across region)
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🏠 IF YOU'RE A HOUSEHOLD
Diversify like Norway (but make it personal):
Norway's strategy: Don't depend on one income source
Your version:
Risk | Resilience |
|---|---|
1 job only | Job + side income |
Only TT$ savings | TT$ + USD mix |
Single skill | 2-3 marketable skills |
100% imported food | Grow 20% yourself |
The lesson: Diversify NOW while cash flows. Crisis mode = too late.
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THIS WEEK'S NUMBERS
Oil: $56.31/barrel (4.5-year low)
Budget assumption: $73.25
Revenue gap: -$1.9B annually
Forex reserves: $4.68B (Sept 2025)
Burn rate: -$60M every 10 days
Crisis threshold: $4.5B (weeks away)
Government response: Silence.
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🗳️ POLL RESULTS
YOU VOTED:
🇯🇲 Jamaica: 47% (WINNER)
🇬🇾 Guyana: 31%
🇻🇨 St. Vincent: 22%
Nov 27th : Jamaica Budget Deep-Dive
7 months post-presentation. What actually delivered?
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READER INTEL
"Dashboard shows what government hides. Shared with my entire manufacturing network." — David L., SME Owner
"Dr. Nurse is right—rent-seeking killed us. Time to build value." — Sarah K., Tech Entrepreneur
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👉 Track the burn live: caribbean-budget-iq-pascalmelissa.replit.app
Forward to 3 people who need to stop waiting and start protecting themselves.
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Caribbean Budget Intelligence™
From rent-seeking to value creation
Melissa Pascal
Caribbean Caucus Founder - SEA Smart™ AI
Economics (York) - MBA (Lok Jack)
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P.S. Norway's $2.1T fund generates $52B annually—forever. T&T's approach? $6.8B vanished in 11 years. Dr. Nurse called it: "Rent-seeking over value creation." Dashboard tracks the damage live. Watch it burn or build something.