"Trinidad is not facing one crisis. It's facing three. And they're all hitting at the same time."
STORM 1: Dragon Gas Delayed (Geopolitical)
April 2025: US OFAC license suspended.
October 2025: Negotiation-only license issued.
2026 Status: ZERO production. No revenue injection.
Impact: The "savior" revenue becomes 2027+ problem.
STORM 2: Nutrien Just Exited (Industrial Collapse)
October 2025: Nutrien controlled shutdown—entire nitrogen complex offline.
Jobs Lost: ~600 direct + 1,600 indirect.
Revenue Lost: $854M USD/year.
Reason: Unreliable gas + port access disputes.
Precedent: Follows Yara (2019), Train 1 (2025), Methanex (2024).
STORM 3: Forex Cliff (Liquidity Crisis)
Reserves: $11.5B (2014) → $4.6B (Aug 2025).
Import Cover: 4.6 months (already below IMF 6-month threshold).
Nutrien Bleed: $71.2M USD/month lost.
2026 Forecast: Import cover drops to 3.2 months by year-end.
The US Dollar Vacuum: No Plants = No Imports
💀 THE "DE-CLUSTERING" MULTIPLIER
Point Lisas was built on shared infrastructure (1 port, 1 pipeline, 1 labor pool for 20 plants). When Nutrien exits, remaining plants inherit the full infrastructure cost burden. Unit costs spike. Next plants close. Cascade effect.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA SPILLOVER
Airspace Risk: Regional flight disruptions. Tourism: -$200M/yr.
Migration: 34,740 Venezuelans in T&T system. Pressure accelerates with escalation.
Sanctions Contagion: Banks tighten Caribbean exposure. Higher insurance costs.
🔴 WHERE THIS LEAVES TRINIDAD
By Q3 2026:
Reserves near critical levels (<$3.5B).
Currency float forced (TT$ slides from 6.7:1 to 8:1).
Import inflation spikes (food, medicine, fuel).
Proman/Methanex margin squeeze accelerates exit risk.
The Choice (All Bad):
Float now (Controlled depreciation, painful but manageable).
Import controls (Rationing, black market explosion).
IMF bailout (Austerity, public sector cuts).
Regional pivot (Higher costs, lower volumes, diaspora deals).
Reality: Expect combination of Float + IMF by Q4 2026.
⚡ THE 90-DAY AGENDA
Secure Dragon: Get full OFAC production license by March 2026. If stalled, accelerate domestic deepwater.
Save the Cluster: Emergency subsidy for remaining plants (~$150M TT$) for 12 months.
Float the Peg: Managed depreciation to 7.2:1 by March 2026. Pair with wage indexing for vulnerable groups.
Diaspora Bond: Raise $300-500M USD from T&T diaspora (7-8% USD bond, 5-year term).
Regional FX Deals: Jamaica, Guyana, DR prefer official rates on regional trade. Build Caribbean clearing house.
🎯 THE BOTTOM LINE:
2026 is the survival year. 2027 is the salvation year (if Dragon produces).
Without aggressive action in the next 90 days, T&T enters managed decline. The window is closing.
CBI Intelligence Unit | Jan 5, 2026 | Ref: PERFECT-STORM-TT-26