Jamaica's stock market: +300% since 2010 Trinidad's stock market: +5.8% since 2010

Same Caribbean. Same hurricanes. Same colonial history.

Different institutions.

After Hurricane Melissa erased $6-8B of Jamaica's GDP in 72 hours, one Jamaican businessman told me: "If Kingston were devastated, it would set the Caribbean back 20 years."

I wanted to prove him wrong. The data proved him right.

And it proved something else: Trinidad has everything Jamaica doesn't—higher GDP per capita ($18K vs $7.5K), energy wealth, no hurricane damage, a $90M digital transformation strategy.

Yet Trinidad's economy contracted -2.1% in Q1 2025 while Jamaica grew +1.4%.

Why?

One word: Desire.

Over 15 years, Jamaica's JSE returned +300.5% total (9.69% CAGR). Trinidad's TTSE returned +5.8% total (0.38% CAGR).

That's not a typo. Jamaica's market grew 52 times faster than Trinidad's.

Mark Mobius (Mobius Capital Partners) called Jamaica "one of the best performing markets in the world in 2015, 2018, and 2019—top 5 globally. Over five years the JSE returned more than 500%."

The World Bank declared in 2019 that Jamaica made an "extraordinary economic turnaround."

Meanwhile, Trinidad's market flatlined despite sitting on oil and gas reserves worth billions.

The insight? Capital goes where governance is good. Jamaica's IMF fiscal discipline (2010-2019) created investor confidence. Trinidad's energy-dependent handout economy repelled it.

Markets are brutally honest about institutional quality.

Here's where Trinidad loses the plot:

Trinidad spends 57% of government expenditure on transfers and subsidies. Jamaica spends 42%. Barbados spends 38%.

Capital investment tells the opposite story:

Trinidad: 7% of budget Jamaica: 18% of budget Barbados: 15% of budget

Trinidad spends 8x more on handouts than productive investment.

This is economic suicide dressed as social policy.

Why it destroys growth:

The result? Trinidad's GDP contracted -2.1% in Q1 2025 while Jamaica grew +1.4%—even after Hurricane Melissa caused $6-8B in damage.

Trinidad Central Bank data (2024): "Central Government Expenditure on Transfers and Subsidies: TTD$30.07B (57% of current expenditure)."

The fiscal deficit widened to -5.3% of GDP in 2024.

You can't spend your way to prosperity with handouts.

Jamaica's diaspora contributes 28% of GDP ($4B annually). Trinidad's diaspora contributes 0.9% ($250M annually).

Same brain drain. Different engagement.

The numbers are staggering:

That's a 23x gap in remittances as a share of economy.

But here's the paradox: Trinidad has 16% brokerage account ownership versus Jamaica's 10%. Trinidadians actually have MORE investment accounts.

So why less diaspora investment?

Trinidadians invest locally in stagnant markets (government bonds, energy stocks). Jamaicans mobilized diaspora to invest from abroad.

How Jamaica did it:

✓ Diaspora bonds (2013: $300M raised)

✓ Cross-listing (Guardian Holdings, Massy Holdings on JSE)

✓ Tax incentives for diaspora investment

✓ Junior Market tax breaks (10-year corporate tax waiver)

CAPRI (2024): "The diaspora's total contribution through remittances, investment, philanthropy, exports and tourism represents 28% ($4B) of Jamaica's national output annually."

Trinidad let 450,000 emigrants disappear. Jamaica turned 3 million emigrants into an economic engine.

I scored both countries across 9 economic dimensions:

Jamaica: 7.6/10 (B grade) Trinidad: 4.0/10 (D grade)

Trinidad wins ONE category: Digital Readiness.

But here's the brutal truth: Apps don't fix -5.3% deficits when energy revenue collapses 54%.

Digital transformation without fiscal discipline = expensive failure.

Trinidad invested $90M (IDB loan) in National Digital Transformation Strategy (2024-2027). During that same period, GDP contracted -2.1%.

You can't app your way out of structural economic problems.

Trinidad's Finance Minister voluntarily repealed the Trinidad and Tobago Revenue Authority (TTRA) in May 2025.

Lost revenue potential: $1.5-3 billion annually.

The official reason? A constitutional court ruling.

The real reason? Zero political appetite to strengthen tax collection or enforce fiscal discipline.

Compare to Jamaica: Maintained strict IMF-imposed tax reforms even AFTER graduating the program in 2019 as "exceptional success."

This single decision proves everything about Trinidad's lack of desire to fix its economic problems.

Jamaica endured 8 years of austerity to escape debt trap. Trinidad repealed its revenue authority to avoid political pain.

One is a strategy. The other is a prayer.

Debt-to-GDP trajectory (2010-2024):

Jamaica: 144% → 72% (-72 percentage points) Trinidad: 74.7% → 85% (+10.3 percentage points)

Jamaica halved its debt through 8 consecutive years of 7%+ primary surpluses. Trinidad's debt is rising despite oil wealth.

The NBER paper title says it all: "Sustained Debt Reduction: The Jamaica Exception."

Exception. Not model. Because what Jamaica did is rare.

IMF (2025): "Jamaica's adherence to strict IMF terms resulted in debt falling below 100% for first time in two decades. The program was graduated as exceptional success."

Jamaica maintained fiscal discipline across election cycles. Both major parties (JLP and PNP) upheld the reforms.

Trinidad? No fiscal responsibility framework. No independent oversight committee. Running a -5.3% deficit while sitting on energy reserves.

The businessman's "20-year setback" claim isn't hyperbole. It's data.

Here's what Kingston provides to the Caribbean:

Timeline to recover equivalent economic position:

TOTAL: 20-25 years

The businessman wasn't exaggerating. He was understating.

This isn't Jamaican vulnerability. It's Caribbean systemic risk.

Trinidad has: → Higher GDP per capita ($18K vs $7.5K) → Natural resources (oil & gas = 45% GDP) → Comprehensive digital strategy ($90M investment) → No hurricane damage in 2025

Jamaica has: → Lower GDP per capita → No oil wealth → $6-8B hurricane damage (30% of GDP) → Limited digital infrastructure

Yet Jamaica outscores Trinidad 7.6/10 vs 4.0/10 across economic fundamentals.

The market confirms it: +300% vs +5.8% over 15 years.

Resources don't drive growth. Institutions do.

Trinidad lacks the political will to make hard choices. Jamaica proved that desire + discipline = transformation.

The data doesn't lie.

If you're Caribbean diaspora, you're watching your remittances get wasted on transfers instead of invested in productive infrastructure.

If you're a Caribbean entrepreneur, you're competing against government handouts that crowd out private sector innovation.

If you're a Caribbean investor, you're watching capital flee to Jamaica's JSE while Trinidad's TTSE stagnates.

If you're a Caribbean citizen, you're living through policy choices that prioritize short-term political survival over long-term prosperity.

Hurricane Melissa forced CARICOM integration—regional disaster response worked because they had to cooperate.

The question: Why wait for Category 5 storms to integrate?

Jamaica can't survive climate disasters alone with 2% insurance coverage. Trinidad can't survive energy price crashes alone with 45% GDP dependence. Barbados can't survive tourism volatility alone as a microstate. Guyana can't survive resource curse alone with unproven institutions.

Operating as CARICOM unit = 3x larger GDP in global negotiations.

The data shows: → Jamaica has the institutions → Trinidad has the resources → Barbados has the fiscal discipline → Guyana has the growth

Together = resilient. Fragmented = doomed.

Your move, CARICOM.

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