☕ THE HEADLINE
Jamaica just launched the Caymanas SEZ—a $650M bet to become the "4th global logistics hub." There's one problem: CARICOM only trades 13.9% with itself. The EU does 63%. Jamaica is building a hub for a market that doesn't exist.
🔥 THE "AH-HA" MOMENT
You can't be a hub for a region that ships to Miami.
In July 2025, PM Andrew Holness broke ground on the Caymanas Special Economic Zone—700 acres, direct links to Kingston Port, Norman Manley Airport, and rail networks. The vision: capture a slice of the $560 billion global logistics market. Total investment since 2020: $1.13 billion(Caymanas $650M + Kingston Port $400M + Westlands $80M).
But here's the structural gap: intra-CARICOM trade = 13.9%. The EU moves 63% of goods internally. ASEAN does 22.4%. We're building transshipment infrastructure for goods that never touch a Caribbean buyer.
📊 THE DATA THAT STINGS
The Logistics Paradox: CARICOM's 13.9% vs EU's 63% Intra-Regional Trade
Jamaica's $1.1B Logistics Bet: Massive Investment, Tiny Regional Market
The paradox visualized:
EU: 63% intra-regional trade (deeply integrated supply chains)
ASEAN: 22.4% (moderate integration, growing)
CARICOM: 13.9% (fragmented, declining in relative terms)
Jamaica's infrastructure is world-class. Kingston Port handles 1.8M TEUs annually after $400M in upgrades. CMA CGM (one of the world's top 5 shipping lines) just signed an $80M lease for Westlands expansion.
But the market is broken. Moving goods within CARICOM costs more per km than shipping to Miami due to: fragmented customs, inconsistent regulations, small shipment volumes, and no regional consolidation.
🧩 THE 9-LAYER DECODE
Layer 6 (Trade & Integration): The "SME Fragmentation Trap" is killing logistics potential. No shared SME definition across CARICOM. No central registry. No coordinated export promotion. A Dominica processor faces the same barriers as a Belize exporter, but policy treats them as separate problems.
Layer 4 (Expenditure Efficiency): Jamaica spent $1.13B on logistics infrastructure. But without fixing intra-regional trade barriers (customs harmonization, regulatory alignment, shared logistics standards), that's infrastructure without throughput.
Layer 2 (Revenue Stability): Jamaica's logistics bet depends on nearshoring volume (US firms reshoring to the Caribbean). If that fails, the Caymanas SEZ becomes an expensive industrial park with vacant lots.
💡 THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH
Jamaica is building the right infrastructure for the wrong market.
The logistics hub vision makes sense if CARICOM actually traded with itself. But we don't. Trinidad manufacturers export to the US, not Jamaica. Guyana's agro-processors ship to Canada, not Barbados. DR's medical devices go to Boston, not Kingston.
The fix isn't more warehouses. It's:
Customs harmonization (eliminate 15-day clearance delays at intra-CARICOM borders)
Regional consolidation hubs (Trinidad's Point Lisas could aggregate CARICOM cargo for global shipping)
SME export financing (create a "CARICOM Scale-Up Fund" for firms earning $1-10M ready to expand regionally)
The irony: Guyana has the capital (oil windfall). Jamaica has the infrastructure. Trinidad has the port capacity (but no cargo). If these three coordinated, CARICOM could become the market Jamaica is building for.
Without it? Jamaica becomes a transshipment node for goods made in China, shipped through Kingston, destined for Miami. That's not a "hub." That's a toll booth.
Next Briefing (Jan 26 ): Trinidad's forex cliff is Barbados' inflation problem. Why one country's crisis becomes everyone's pain.